I think I agree, I don’t think it’s AI generated (reflections all seem to line up, none of the details are really weird that I can see) but I suspect it may be a manipulated image, either via AI or manually. The focus seems off to me, especially in the foreground.
Well for the snow, I’d imagine the cleared circle is from the heat from the fire. I’d say it’s more suspicious that the chopping block has unmelted snow on it so close to the fire, but it’s also possible someone moved it into frame for the picture, which also could be why it’s more crooked. And do you never put Christmas lights outside where you are? It could very well be just a regular tree with outdoor rated lights on it.
Not saying that it’s 100% not AI or anything, the vibe is definitely AI, just that I don’t see anything completely unreasonable in this image that gives it away.
Edit to add: it’s a photo from 4 years ago, categorically not AI.