- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
I find most people don’t know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I’ve talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn’t know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Changing to Linux means, people…:
- need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
- need to be aware of the actual alternative
- need to be willing to learn something new
- need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
- need to choose a Linux distribution
- need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don’t have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
Such a hard agree. My wife won’t even let me install Linux, which takes out the more technical aspects of the above.
She’s just comfortable on Windows. Most people don’t want to learn something new and even fewer actually care about privacy.
Edit: Us Linux users assume that if Windows gets bad enough people will switch to Linux, when we all should face facts that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
Rich normies.
Sure, for the mac pro line with specs that us nerds care about.
I think some of those M1 mac airs are really affordable now though. For casual use it would be a good device for a tech illiterate person.
Or a mini.
I have an M2 mini I use for iOS builds, cheap enough for me to buy and stick in the rack to use for remote builds. I got that a year ago for $600ish iirc.
Yeah man. Apple still screws people when it comes to ram and storage options of course, but the base products are actually pretty good for the money.
Mostly yes but there’s one other option that simplifies the whole thing: Chromebooks. They’re actually pretty decent for someone who doesn’t need much beyond a browser, a mail client, and a basic office suite.
Sure, they’re tied to Google with all that entails but they can be a real option for someone like a senior who relies on relatives for tech support.
I agree. Chromebooks are a viable choice for those who want a web terminal. I used one for about a year. Got the job done.
Something I’ve never checked for but…are there any linux installers that run from within windows? Shrink the windows partition, create a linux partition, populate it, install grub, and tell the user to reboot and choose linux? I think general lack of good ext4 fs support in windows might make things difficult, but you don’t actually need to do that part from within windows. There could be a second installer that’s triggered the first time they boot from grub.
I feel like a well supported installer like that would dramatically lower the barrier to entry. It could make dual booting windows a breeze for anyone who knows how to run an installer and reboot, which is what people actually want.
This sounds awesome idea. Not sure if there is a technical reason why this could not be done. On the other hand, Windows already has WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux, is it still called like that?). All antivirus programs would probably go nuts. Windows itself is a restricted system and some things need to be done before booting into Windows. I assume if it was possible, then this would have been done before. At least I never heard about this. The best way is to have a preinstalled Linux on hardware.
Q4OS has an installer like that, but you have to change the boot order after installation, I don’t think it uses grub.
Nice, indeed it looks like it does! Wonder if that installer could be packaged and licensed in a way that more distros could use it.
Until something breaks, or doesn’t have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
This was my experience years ago.
… And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it’s high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
Also (and that’s not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the “boringness” and the old Windows charme.And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can’t break my stuff, etc…
It’s the most “boring” and user friendly OS I’ve used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.But I’ve never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you’re an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say “My PC broke” and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can’t discount that.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
User-induced trauma, poor distros.
The fact those poor distros exist means yet another hurdle for the average user to switch to Linux
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never “destroyed [themselves] after a while”. Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
I’ve got the complete opposite to you. I’m in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I’ve been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn’t user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what’s updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that’s on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it’s faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
It’s true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I’m using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
Right! Sadly…😭
Business versions of Windows either won’t have recall or the domain controllers will be able to enforce a rule against it.
Then people move to Mac.
Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn’t suit you, there’s no way to change it. You’re stuck with how Windows works because it’s batteries included.
Most of the points listed here don’t matter a hoot to the average user.
True.
The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
Nobody will notice end of support for Windows 10. Why would they? Nobody noticed end of support for Windows 7, either, and it’s still up and running in many places where it really shouldn’t.
End users don’t give a crap about security updates and as long as users don’t bump into a lack of third party driver they won’t even notice a difference. And yeah, like every other time they will eventually update to the current version once more practical issues crop up. 10 to 11 isn’t even close to the harshest upgrade path MS has deployed.
However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
be informed that their computer does not support Win11
and forget about it.
That’s slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the “it just works” catagory. And they do care about that.
I agree. However if you look through the other comments in here, you’ll see a LOT more examples of stuff that fall into the “it just doesn’t work” category instead. And most of them are a lot more obvious to casual / new users. Those would be the ones that really require priority if Linux is ever to become mainstream.
There’s more than a few reasons why Linux can’t make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they’d need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn’t work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I’ll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I’ll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they’ve taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions “computer”, and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I’ve mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I’ve encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn’t work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of “it all just works all the time”, the more adoption you’ll see.
Pretty sure Ubuntu does hands off updates. And neither arch or Ubuntu required me to do any configuration to get Nvidia graphics working aside from the driver selection in the installer
On X11, Nvidia is pretty close to plug n’play (unless you install multiple kernels, but even then it isn’t so bad). Wayland has been a stuttery mess for Nvidia for a while now and there’s a long standing issue up that hopefully will be resolved in 550 release.
That said, linux desktop environment developers will likely have to adjust a large amount of environment variables (more than they probably have already) that thus far have had to be set by the User by hand. One has only to look at the Hyprland docs on setting up Nvidia to see the extent to which the bulk of the configuration is set on the User as it stands right now.
I’m on Wayland
deleted by creator
no automatic updates
Well it’s really not entirely true unless you’re on a rolling release (which most people should if they can do basic system administration themselves). Unattended updates were a thing in traditional Linux distros with frozen release cycles since forever. On any Ubuntu-based system it’s a matter of switching a toggle, and I think it could’ve been Mint that enabled that by default (I’m not sure) at least for security updates, because users never updated their systems. They can still be done much quicker and more transparently than Windows does that, without ever forcing users to reboot in any given time.
The problem is also that once in like 5 years you absolutely have to upgrade system to a newer version to keep it updates in such scenario. Popping up a dialog with info that your system goes EOL and you’ll loose security updates and one click upgrade button should be enough.
Yeah, Fedora has the closest I’ve seen to this, as they do a rolling release distribution cycle, but with a major update every year. It’s still too hands on for the average Windows user from what I’ve seen.
That said, in the particular case of the Fedora upgrade, I’ll admit I get lazy in the other direction. If I can accomplish a task from the terminal, 99.9% of the time, I’ll do it simply because it’s exponentially faster.
it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire.
And if it does, the acolytes will hate it and start pushing for BSD adoption, because there’s a huge streak of hipsterism in the Linux community
Ah BSD, the OS that probably doesn’t have an NSA backdoor in it because it’s just not worth their time, lol.
the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development,
TIL that Typescript was developed by MS. It’s “free and open-source” though, i’d say the hability for them to cripple it are minimal?
GitHub was a blow though and it’s why i recommend CodeBerg at every chance i get. They’re on mastodon: @Codeberg@Codeberg@social.anoxinon.de
I’d say Ubuntu is probably the distro closer to being the “desktop linux”, Canonical’s been trying to be like MS for years.
Yeah, I generally agree with all sentiments. TS is handy at times, but working with poorly written .d.ts types from 3rd party libs is Hell.
The MS acquisition of Github is sad imho. Using alternatives is nice. I’ll eventually get around to self hosting a Gitea or cgit instance.
Ubuntu, Mint, and PopOS are probably the closest to a mainstream Linux Desktop from what I’ve seen, and perhaps one day one of those really will take the mantle and push the Linux Desktop forward into the mainstream, but I just don’t see it. I do hope I’m wrong though.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
That sums it all up. The average user wants a PC that just works. Terminal is a big no for the average user, and while we dont get gui ways of doing everything an average user does, it will be a big barrier. Even calamares needs to be waaaaay simpler (like a “i have no idea what im doing, configure it all for me” option).
Pop has automatic updates now.
nice doctorate thesis bro
I think we should be thankful for having users contribute long-form thought-out content like this, instead of ridiculing them.
Agreed. I don’t care enough to read it all. But to anyone who does. Nice.
nice tweet of support sis
There one glaring issue. Most people don’t really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.
I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it’s a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn’t just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).
It’s funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.
Confusing Linux with Lenovo is pretty funny.
My ex wife turned out to be a Lenovo. She and her new girlfriend seem very happy. /s
Must of been how they used the little red nub.
Obligatory xkcd: https://xkcd.com/243/
There’s always one!
Bro - sounds like you missed an opportunity to dual boot!
I have Linux in a Lenovo… What does it mean???
Lenovo’s, especially the older Thinkpad T-series (such as the Thinkpad T440) are excellent Linux laptops, they’re durable, upgradable and offer a smooth ootb experience with Linux systems (down to open source drivers for their fingerprint readers)
So it means u prolly don gud
wow I have never heard people being this ignorant. that sounds funnt, and a bit sad. too bad I have hp and not linux
I can’t blame them. There’s a lot out there that I still remain ignorant of. I’m sure we’re all a bit ill informed here and there.
Is it just me or has using a brand name as a regular noun become really common? For example, Android-based devices are just referred to as “an Android”.
Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.
No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.
We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.
Yeah it’s tough to expect general users to switch. I would just like linux to go over 5% threshold so that companies seriously consider it.
I was a Windows user up until a couple of years ago when I switched to Kubuntu and never looked back. I think after Windows 10 is gone, there will be a big uptick in Linux.
People said that about Windows 7 EoL too, which was much more of a paradigm shift. Absolutely nothing happened. The dial for “market share” barely moved, let alone Linux increasing substantially.
Just not gonna happen. I really wish it would, but it’s just wishful thinking. Most people either don’t care (they just “use a PC”) or wouldn’t know how to switch anyway.
Comparing the era of Win 7 EoL with the current one isn’t apples to apples. For one, there actually was a slight increase in Linux marketshare. Second, enshittification has entirely taken over (made even worse by AI), and that wasn’t thing until a few years into Windows 10. Will it be The Year Of The Linux Desktop? Absolutely not, but there will be an uptick in Linux usage. The real delusion is saying there won’t be. Who knows how long it’ll last? But we’ve already seen more and more people get Linux curious thanks to Microsoft’s continued blunders and things like the Steam Deck.
You clearly misunderstood my post. Never said it was apples to apples, quite the opposite. I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we’re ignoring Win 8 completely).
And of course will there be an uptick in Linux usage, he says it would be a “big” one, to which I objected to. Linux desktop has been trending up for a while, and while there might be a slight additional bump, I highly doubt it will be far beyond the margin of error for that general positive trend.
I also said it “barely” moved (it being the market share), which implies it did move, just not a lot.
More to the expected magnitude of the 10 EoL date pushing people to Linux, it won’t be anywhere near what valve accomplished with the steam deck. Why? Because people buy a gaming console, they can play games on. Most don’t care that it’s Linux, it’s just a tool/toy. It happens to be Linux underneath. On their PC they actively have to change it themselves. If people bought a PC that had Linux on it, they probably wouldn’t overly notice or care either, but they just can’t. Overwhelmingly they just come with windows, it you want it or not (usually there is no option to not buy that license).
Edit: what is harder to predict (or guess) is the indirect influence of valves accomplishment. Now that gaming on Linux it’s actually viable, this might actually open the door for more people to give it a go. But as per usual with these things, it’s probably less people who actually do it than one would intuitively expect or hope.
Edit 2: changed Vista to Win8
I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we’re ignoring vista completely).
Do you mean Windows 8/8.1 instead of Vista, as 8 was between 7 and 10?
Ah yes of course, edited. Both are the unwanted stepchildren, so it’s hard to keep em straight when you don’t care about em…
I think it’s a little more complex today than it was in the days of Win7.
First, the performance/compatibility gap is much smaller than it used to be. Ie, back in those days, Wine was much more of a crapshoot. Now, compatibility is a lot better, and there are a number of straightforward troubleshooting tools like Winetricks. Proton is also huge, being an in-built feature in the largest gaming platform on PC.
Second, the Steamdeck has exposed numerous more casual PC gamers to Linux than probably there ever has been in the past. Granted, the PC handheld market isn’t massive, but it’s also not small. People want to play AAA pc games in the form factor of a Switch, and it just so happens that the most popular, well polished and best supported product in that market ships with Linux.
Third, todays focus on privacy and freedom is much more of a hot button issue than it was back in the day. I’m not at all trying to imply that there weren’t priviacy concious folk back then, but face it, in 2011, your car didn’t track your location and sell that data to marketing companies. Your phone didn’t capture your fingerprints, and your operating system didn’t track your online shopping habbits and show you ads in the start menu, or take constant screen-captures of your work at all times. People are more concious of their privacy now than they ever were (even people who aren’t super into tech are at the very least familiar with ad blockers and VPNs). I genuinely believe this will be one of the bigger factors if there is an uptick. People will learn about this alternative OS with no ads, no trackers, plus it’s free, and that will at least get them curious. You’re right, some will try but abandon it, some won’t care at all, but I think the number of people who just want out of what MS is locking them into is growing.
I honestly don’t care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to…
You say that because you don’t realize the benefits:
- Better support for Linux with any new PC hardware on day 1. This includes things like USB devices, monitors, KVMs, UPS, everything.
- Better support for all commercial software in general. More software will become available and it’ll be higher quality.
- Vendors will be forced to test all their stuff on Linux which means it’ll all become more reliable and less glitchy.
- There will be more diversity in software and distros which means widespread attacks (aka hacking, worms, viruses, etc) will have less success and smaller impacts.
- The more Linux users there are the more Linux developers will result. It’s also much easier to start learning how to code on a Linux desktop than it is in Windows.
- Better security for the entire world. Linux has a vastly superior security architecture than Windows and a vastly superior track record. The more Linux users there are, the harder it will be for malicious entities to break into their PCs which translates into a more secure world.
- It’s much easier (for experienced users) to troubleshoot and fix problems in Linux than in Windows. This will lead to support teams everywhere getting frustrated whenever they have to deal with Windows users (this is already the case for many software vendors, haha). Therefore, it makes support people happy and easy going. Who doesn’t want to reach a happy, helpful person for technical support instead of the usual defiant/adversarial support tech? 😁
- The worst sorts of hardware vendors won’t be able to get away with their usual bullshit. For example, if there were enough Linux users HP wouldn’t be offering extremely invasive 2GB printer “drivers” because their Windows customers would know enough Linux users that they’d be rightfully pissed and not depressively submissive like they are now.
- When you do have a problem it will be easier to find a solution because the likelihood that someone else already had it and posted a solution will be higher (though admittedly this factor doesn’t seem to do much for Windows currently because of how obtuse and obfuscated everything is in that OS).
There’s actually a lot more reasons but that’s probably enough for now 😁
better security for the entire world…
The moment Linux takes over as a dominant desktop/laptop OS we’ll start seeing a metric ton of the windows hackers follow suit to attack us. We’ll end up in a situation where they’ll probably go after some random kernel bugs that nobody else.has found yet or just don’t think are critical/exploitable. Or they’ll just attack the biggest, most widely used distros, going after people using them and any derivative distro similar enough for their malicious tools to work on it.
In general though, it would be a good thing for Linux to become a lot more prominent in the desktop/laptop market for general users. Especially since I imagine thanks to Linux being open source, people would be able to stop these malicious actors from doing damage much quicker (even though I imagine the majority of normal people switching over would almost never update because they’re used to forced updates and not having to do it themselves).
People don’t realize this enough.
There will be just as many vulnerabilities found with Linux distros as there are with Windows as soon as there’s real interest in finding them.
Not saying we should stop linux adoption or anything, but there’s a massive illusion that Linux is more secure. It isn’t.
I mean it might be more secure, it might be less secure, we just can’t read through the source for windows, so we won’t know until linux is attacked as much as windows. It would (will?) definitely be interesting to find out.
There will be more diversity in software and distros
I wish, but I doubt it. If we get to the point where there is a mass migration from Windows to Linux, it will almost certainly be concentrated into one or maybe two big distros. Probably Ubuntu.
Today, most proprietary software vendors only support Ubuntu and RHEL. Look at AMD. The ROCm installer supports Ubuntu 22.04, RHEL 9, and SLES. That’s it. Not even modern versions of Ubuntu. And it’s extremely ornery about dependencies. Python 3.8 or 3.10 required! No 3.9! No 3.11! Trying to get it to install on any modern Debian-based distro is the ninth circle of Dependency Hell.
Right now it’s sort of up to Nvidia and Wayland. Desktop sound is in good shape, desktop color (profiles and matching) and fonts are not there yet. Ray tracing and hdr have proven how much of a second class citizen desktop Linux is, so right now the most important factor is the SteamDeck for pushing the envelope to implement new tech. Chinese and German goverments moving to Linux helps but to be honet, I think that the “office and browser” use case is pretty well covered.
Possibly. But it’s also pretty common in many instances of technology adoption that as more users come, the quality gets worse, and while open source doesn’t have to worry about a shareholder-driven profit motive driving it, it’s still easy to wind up with a muddled focus. I wouldn’t expect that Linux and all of the associated software projects that make the functional desktop are going to be an exception overall. If you’re an open source developer working on a project now, basically any user is some form of power user, and it’s easier to find consensus of what to prioritize on a project not only because Linux users tend to be better about understanding how their software works and are actually helpful in further development, they’re also likely to direct development towards features that make software more open, compatible, and useful.
Now fast forward to a future where Linux is the majority desktop OS, those power users are maybe 5% of the software’s user base, and every major project’s forum is inundated with thousands of users screaming about how hard the software is to use and, when bug reports and feature requests are actually coherent, they mostly boil down to demands for simpler, easier to understand UIs. I can easily imagine the noise alone could lead to an exodus of frustrated developers.
Some things are better for NOT trying to be the answer for everyone.
Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
Most people don’t. But if they keep chipping away their customers, Linux might reach a threshold where it’s more convenient to switch.
You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.
Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.
Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!
There’s a real opportunity here and we can either take it and run or we can let it pass us by.
- Windows 11 getting Copilot+ Recall
And a shit-ton of ads.
And the kitchen sink
Oh wait that’s the next KDE release
The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can’t get rounded corners right.
Though I agree with your overall point, I can’t see why rounded corners (or the lack of it) might be a noticeable issue.
Whenever I install Linux on someone’s computer, the first thi that they ask is always “why aren’t the corners properly rounded? I can’t use this!”
(No, this has never happened, but it would be funny, I’d get to smack them over the head)
What else am I missing?
Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.
Linux is roughly at 3.88% market share. You don’t think we can bump Linux adoption to 99.9% in the next six months?
We just have to keep writing these “Year of the Linux” posts every year.
You mean 50.1% !
Come on… don’t be so pessimistic!!
You mean realistic???
We say this every fucking year! Come on, this is getting ridiculous! Stop it! There will never be a year of the Linux desktop and if anything, this post shows why.
So much of the Linux community is utterly detached from what really matters to most users and focus on things that 80% of people won’t ever understand, care about or even use.
We focus on this and meanwhile, little quality of life features constantly get ignored when these are the real things that users will encounter and that will piss them off. They get treated as trivial. They get ignored in favor of other things.
Somebody mentioned it here. I saw it and I didn’t need them to mention it to want to say it. It’s already something that’s pissing me off. On Fedora for my Framework Laptop there is no way to adjust the scrolling speed on my trackpad which is moronically fast.
We are on the 40th release of Fedora, the 46th release of GNOME, and somehow this still isn’t baked in. I still have to go look around and use the fucking terminal to do something this basic. When some of them try Linux and will eventually push them to go back to Windows. And when users complain about this, what do we get? A bunch of elitists telling them to fuck off to go back to Windows, which I also saw as responses to this complaint about the trackpad.
Listen, Linux is an amazing project and I love it. I daily drive it. I don’t use Windows anywhere in my life. I haven’t touched OS in like two years at the very least. So many things that we are celebrating as brand new things that are finally working properly are things that already work by default on Windows and have been for years. We’re not going to convince people by mentioning that, “oh, we fixed this thing that’s been working forever on Windows.” It works on Linux now. People need more than this.
You want to know the sad truth? Here we go. We, collectively here, users of platform like Lemmy, are a vocal minority who are detached from the reality of most users. We care about ads, we care about privacy and so on, but the reality is most that people don’t. Most people won’t even notice that those things are there. For so many people, Windows is just the thing that stands between them and launching Chrome. It already works for them. There’s no reason for them to switch.
We are all way too invested in what runs on our computers and we forget that we are just us. Most people are not like us. Privacy scandals stop us from using stuff like social media and so on, but it clearly hasn’t stopped most of the world.
People heard about the shit that Meta was and is doing. Did people stop using Instagram? No, they didn’t. People know what Google is doing, how many of them switched to DuckDuckGo? A clinical moron turning the platform into a far-right haven didn’t stop most users from using Twitter.
The API bullshit didn’t stop most users from using Reddit. Sure there were protest, but I guarantee you that 99% who took part in the blackout just went back to it after. A lot of us didn’t. We left. We’re here now. But we’re still a tiny minority.
Ask a Firefox user did telling Chrome users that privacy was important ever worked? I’m sure you will get examples of it working but it’s a minority. Most people don’t give a shit and they use Chrome.
I don’t have a solution. I’m sorry, I made this long-ass comment but I don’t have much else to say. I don’t have a good solution to this problem.
Lol and we’re forgetting the biggest QOL feature of all: actually coming installed with pre built computers.
Chrome OS was the only one to ever make a dent.
Without that this will always be a “power” user OS. People just want it to work.
I think this is the only feature that matters. For a user switching away from Windows I would love to hear about the user experience between buying a system76 (or another Linux system seller) vs a Mac laptop. Complaining that Linux doesn’t work with your hardware is like complaining that the hackintosh that you built doesn’t work with your hardware.
Seriously. I think Linux users expend 10x the energy worrying about ads on Windows than actual windows users. If you’re used to seeing hundreds of ads / day on the web, why the hell would you care about an occasional onedrive popup.
Re touchpads totally agree as well, I installed fedora kde on my mom’s abandoned laptop a couple weeks ago and it was atrocious. Limited gestures, no configurability, no smooth scroll, no scroll momentum except in apps that implement it manually, scrolling speeds totally off. I managed to fix most of these, but regular people can’t be expected to.
Battery life, for another is unpredictable and quite bad. Most people I’ve talked to seem to assume performant/light = efficient when it comes to Linux. This is not the case. Once again, solutions exist, but they are not accessible to a regular person.
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What else am I missing?
Mostly just that these aren’t the things preventing people from switching.
Get pre-installed Linux hardware on storefronts at Costco, Best Buy, Walmart, etc. That’s when things will change.
